Market situation: Aluminum prices are still in a stage of rebound.

The results of the midterm elections in the United States have been announced, with the Democratic Party taking control of the Senate, but the control of the House of Representatives falling to the Republican Party. The two houses are divided into two parties, intensifying the game and potentially disrupting the subsequent interest rate hike path. However, the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is unlikely to change, that is, to slow down interest rate hikes, but there will be no short-term pause in interest rate hikes. Continuous optimization of prevention and control policies, paying attention to policy changes and implementation. Guangxi has issued policies and measures to support stable growth in some key industries, supporting aluminum enterprises to start production in the fourth quarter. Electrolytic aluminum enterprises that have been affected by the epidemic or have stopped production due to energy-saving technology upgrades since the beginning of this year will be rewarded according to their capacity improvement. This move may effectively increase domestic market supply.

Fundamentals: Currently, there is no apparent driving force.

Domestically, as the dry season approaches, the pressure of water and electricity shortage is evident, which may disrupt the operation of aluminum plants. On the demand side, the golden September and silver October have passed, and we are about to enter the seasonal off-season. Consumption is unlikely to have any bright spots, and we mainly focus on policies such as guaranteeing the delivery of buildings to boost the completion of real estate, but it will require a longer completion period. Overall, prices in mainstream regions fluctuate around the cost line, with temporary support at the bottom and significant rebound pressure above, forming a clear oscillation range for electrolytic aluminum. Overseas, the main focus is still on cost support. LME announced that it does not recommend imposing sanctions on Rusal for now, which will help the market sentiment return to rational fundamentals. In the early stage, Europe stored a large amount of natural gas for winter, causing a sharp decline in electricity prices. However, the European natural gas reservoirs are difficult to sustain, and the support for electricity costs is strong in the medium and long term.

Spot trading:The market's willingness to receive goods has increased.

According to Shanghai Metal Network, holders of goods reported an increase in price and a discount of around 40 yuan/ton for the 12 contracts in the morning. The spot price of aluminum ingots has risen in line with the market trend, and holders in the East China market have reported an average online price of+20~+30 yuan/ton, and have heard of transactions. Yesterday, the enthusiasm of major buyers for receiving goods was still good, and the receiving price in the East China market was around 18980 yuan/ton. There is a shortage of circulating goods, and the market's willingness to receive goods has increased. The overall transaction performance is still acceptable.

The return of aluminum prices to rational fundamentals and macro game theory makes it difficult to break through the upper oscillation range; In the medium to long term, the focus shifts downwards.