Copper market:The May new home construction data in the United States is impressive, with London copper closing up 0.28% overnight; The ban on the export of Indonesian copper concentrates has triggered supply concerns. The stock atmosphere before the Dragon Boat Festival can still provide price support, and the current copper may rise.

New housing construction in the United States in May saw the largest increase since 2016, exceeding economists' expectations. The Federal Reserve has raised its forecast for US economic growth. The European Central Bank says inflation is coming to an end. The high temperature caused the electricity price in Texas, USA to soar by 80% at one point. The market is paying attention to changes in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and Powell's congressional speech on Thursday and Friday may cause significant market volatility. Overnight, the US dollar rose slightly, non-ferrous metals showed divergent trends, copper and lead rose, and aluminum and zinc fell.

Overnight, London copper bottomed out and rebounded, closing slightly higher at $8566. Today, US copper opened slightly lower. Shanghai copper fluctuated at a high level during the night trading session and closed at a cross star, closing at 68890. The trading positions of Shanghai copper have all increased, and the market sentiment tends to be optimistic. The US economic data exceeded expectations, the expectation of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates has increased, and the macroeconomic fundamentals are weak. The spot premium is still at a high level, and trading is weak. The short-term rebound of copper prices continues, and the medium-term fundamentals are weak. The upper pressure is 69000, and the lower support is 62680. At present, it is recommended to wait and see at a high level, and the trend may gradually become clearer next week.

Aluminum market:Prior to Powell's congressional testimony, the market atmosphere was cautious, with London aluminum closing down 0.11% overnight. The People's Bank of China made a small interest rate cut as scheduled, and the short-term performance of aluminum prices remained stable due to rising spot premiums and tight inventory. It is expected that aluminum prices will rise slightly.

Overnight crude oil fell, while London Aluminum rose and fell slightly, closing at $2232. Shanghai Aluminum opened high and closed low in the evening session, with a small shadow at 18510. The trading positions of Shanghai Aluminum have all decreased, and the market sentiment before the holiday tends to be wait-and-see. The demand for spot goods is good, and the low domestic aluminum inventory provides some support, but the off-season is approaching, and the mid-term fundamentals of aluminum prices are average. At present, the market sentiment is relatively cautious, with upward pressure of 18600 and downward support of 17385.

On the macro level, today the central bank lowered the 1-year LPR and 5-year LPR by 10 basis points as scheduled. The research and negotiation symposium on "restoring and expanding consumption" was held in Beijing, continuing to release signals of stable growth, and the macro sentiment was relatively warm. In terms of fundamentals, Yunnan has officially issued a notice on fully relaxing load management. This week, some electrolytic aluminum plants have started to resume production with electricity, and Yunnan electrolytic aluminum has entered the resumption period. The aluminum ingot warehouse has shown a slight accumulation of 2000 tons, and the absolute level of inventory is still low. The demand for pre holiday stocking has driven up the premium, which supports the aluminum price. The three consecutive basis differences are in a moderately high position. The overall trend of smelting costs remains downward, and cost support continues to weaken. In the short term, aluminum prices have rebounded due to macroeconomic sentiment, while in the medium term, the focus is still on short selling far month contracts during the rebound.