Cable raw materials: Copper prices are strong and rebounding, with prices now rising significantly

Recently, the main force of Shanghai copper has risen significantly, with the 2211 contract opening at 62000 yuan/ton. As of the end of the trading day, the latest price was 62360 yuan/ton, an increase of 1060 yuan or 1.73% from the previous trading day. In terms of spot goods, the average price of Changjiang Spot 1 # copper is 64510 yuan/ton, an increase of 1260 yuan from the previous trading day.

From a macro perspective, overseas, the September non farm payroll data of the United States slightly exceeded expectations, and the probability of the Federal Reserve aggressively raising interest rates again in November has significantly increased, reversing previous market calls for a slowdown in interest rate hikes by European and American central banks, thereby increasing financial risk pressure; Domestically, stable growth remains the main theme, but the fluctuation of the epidemic after the holiday has affected market sentiment.

From a micro perspective, copper inventory did not accumulate on the first day after the holiday, and although the spot premium decreased, the tight supply and demand pattern of spot has not changed. The monthly contract has risen strongly, and the price difference between the main contract and the sub main contract has also expanded to 1000 yuan/ton. Chile's copper mine production has been continuously reduced, and there is also a risk of supply interruption in Russia. Europe is at risk of smelting interruption due to the energy crisis, and the fundamental supply and demand situation still provides strong support for copper prices.

However, domestic procurement after the holiday also showed a cautious wait-and-see attitude. The fourth quarter is a process of peak season turning into off-season, and with the recovery of domestic copper smelting, the domestic strength may not continue.

Overall, the game of strong reality and weak expectations is intense, and copper prices tend to rebound strongly in the short term, but the long-term outlook is not optimistic. The trend of weak copper prices in the fourth quarter, with periodic recovery, will continue.