Supply and Demand Forecast and Analysis of Anhui Tiankang Wire and Cable Industry

From 2007 to 2012,Anhui TiankangThe output value of the wire and cable industry has gradually increased. In 2011, the total output value of the industry exceeded 1 trillion yuan, reaching 1105.076 billion yuan; In 2012, the total output value of occupational industry reached 12240 trillion yuan. As a highly cyclical industry, its industrial output value growth rate changes with the development of the national economy. Before 2008, the growth rate of occupational industrial output value exceeded 30%, reaching 33% in 2007. With the rapid development of the Chinese economy, the growth rate of occupations reached a low point of only 6% in 2009 due to the impact of the financial crisis in 2008; With the release of the 4 trillion yuan investment effect of the country, the national economy recovered in 2010, and the growth rate of the wire and cable industry also climbed to 29% of 2010; But with the flash of overcapacity effect in the national economy, the growth rate of occupational industrial output value also declined to 18% in 2011; In the second half of 2012, with the recovery of the national economy, the prosperity of the wire and cable industry also declined compared to the first half, and the total output value of the industry increased by 10.77% for the whole year.

But overall, in recent years, the Chinese wire and cable industry has steadily expanded in the twists and turns of the Chinese economy, but its growth rate has changed with the twists and turns of the economy.

Professional Production and Sales Analysis

Production and sales ratio is an important goal for balancing supply and demand, and a higher production and sales ratio means that the supply and demand of the product are fundamentally balanced. Generally speaking, a production and sales rate of over 95% is considered to indicate a good supply and demand situation.

From the perspective of the production and sales rate of the wire and cable profession, there is a certain correlation between the production and sales rate of the profession and the development of the national economy. With the 2008 financial crisis, the production and sales rate of the profession continued to decline from 2007 to 2008 and reached a low point of 93.95% in 2009. At the same time, with the release of the national investment effect and the increase in social demand for wire and cable, the production and sales rate of the profession increased. In 2010, the production and sales rate of the profession reached 96.41%. However, in 2011, as the growth rate of the profession declined and the national economy weakened, the production and sales rate of the profession showed a strong trend. The reason is that in the past two years, the explosive increase in demand for special wires and cables has led to a shortage of special cables in the market. In this special context, the production and sales rate of special cables and the The speed increase of general cables is irrelevant. In 2012, due to severe overcapacity in occupational production, there was a significant pressure on occupational inventory throughout the year, resulting in a production and sales rate of 96.45% for wire and cable occupations.

So, after integrating and considering, it is speculated that the production and sales rate of the entire profession is mainly influenced by the following two factors: the development of the national economy and the phenomenon of a shortage of special cables in the market. Considering the current sales situation of general cables in 2013, the weak development trend of the downstream power grid in the profession, the rapid development of the communication profession, the reduced pressure of destocking in the profession, and the shortage of special cables, the occupational production and sales rate in 2013 was about 96.55.

Speculation on occupational supply

In 2013, China's economy was constantly in a weak recovery state. Under the condition of declining economic growth and relatively declining growth of fixed assets investment, the growth momentum of China's wire and cable professional stores slowed down. Entering 2012, although there has been an increase in professional assets, the productivity effect of this asset increase may be released in the coming years. At the same time, there has been little change in the loss situation of professional enterprises. As of the end of 2012, the ability of professional surplus and debt repayment still showed an upward trend.

These indicate that the overall scale of professions is still increasing, but the increase rate will decrease compared to last year. In 2012, the total output value of vocational industries in China increased by about 11 percentage points compared to 2011, and the growth rate of the Chinese economy in 2012 was 7.80%. According to the Chinese government work report, in 2013, the intended growth rate of the Chinese economy was controlled at 7.5%. But the next few years will be an important period for the development of China's power grid and communication industry. Power grid and mobile wiring are important downstream occupations in the cable industry. According to the data from January to September 2013, the supply growth rate of wire and cable occupations was about 10% in 2013, and it is speculated that the occupational growth rate dropped to about 8% in 2014.

Market Capacity Analysis

In recent years, with the changes in the microeconomic environment, the capacity of wire and cable professional shopping malls has been increasing in a roundabout manner. In 2007, the mall capacity was 4.5 times that of 2003; The growth rate declined slightly in 2008, but there was still an increase in mall capacity; In 2009, due to economic impact, the capacity growth rate of professional shopping malls significantly declined; In 2010 and 2011, due to the recovery of the national economy, the capacity growth of vocational malls was significantly boosted, with a growth rate of nearly 30 percentage points for two consecutive years; In 2012, due to overcapacity in most professions in the country, the economic growth rate declined, leading to a decrease in job demand and a slowdown in the growth rate of vocational market capacity.

Table 1 Capacity of Wire and Cable Vocational Market

From the perspective of the entire microeconomics, the rapid growth in the early years of the economy has slowed down. Theoretical evidence over the years has shown that an increase in China's GDP will inevitably drive an increase in employment. It is estimated that China's GDP will continue to grow at a rate of 7.0-7.5% in 2014. Therefore, the wire and cable shopping mall is still relatively disappointed, and the mall capacity will show a downward trend in growth rate.

Qualitative analysis of shopping malls

The upstream occupations of the wire and cable profession are metal occupations such as copper and aluminum, among which the copper consumption of the wire and cable profession accounts for more than 50% of the total copper consumption in the country; The primary occupations in the lower class include electricity, communication, and other professions, among which the electricity profession accounts for a large part of the consumption of wires and cables.

Table 2 Sensitivity of Different Occupations to the National Economy

Sensitivity to the national economy

Therefore, based on the composition of wire and cable materials and the industrial composition of the upstream and downstream, the sensitivity of wire and cable to the national economy is moderate, that is, it maintains a certain correlation with the overall development of the national economy, but will not experience significant fluctuations due to the instability of the national economy.

Quantitative analysis of shopping malls

Analyze the correlation between the wire and cable industry and microeconomic cycles, and select two targets: the sales revenue of the wire and cable industry and the gross domestic consumption. As shown in Table 3, the sales revenue and GDP data of the wire and cable industry.

Table 3 Sales revenue and GDP data of wire and cable professions

The correlation analysis between XS and GDP conducted using software is shown in Table 4.

Table 4 Correlation between XS and GDP

**. There is a significant correlation at the. 01 level (bilateral).

Table 5 Correlation coefficient between XS and GDP

a. Dependent variable: XS (sales revenue)

Namely XS=-2137.71+0.029 * GDP

In 2013, GDP is expected to grow by 7.5%, which means the total GDP will reach GDP by the end of 20132013=GDP2012*(1+7.5%)=558271.75 million yuan.

Quantitative forecast market capacity for the wire and cable industry in 2013: XS2013=-2137.71+0.029*GDP2013=1405.217 billion yuan.

According to macroeconomic forecasts, GDP is expected to grow by 7.0% in 2013, which means the total GDP will reach GDP by the end of 20132014=GDP2013*(1+7.0%)=597350.77 (billion yuan).